Poverty in North Korea (2010)
(credit: Roman Harak, via Wikimedia Commons)
Chapter 3. (continued)
In
answer to the critics who deride the difficulty of rigorously testing Moral
Realism, we can also reply that studies called ex post facto can be done
in Social Science. Anthropologists and historians can study existing societies,
each as it currently is and compare it to earlier versions of itself or to
other societies with similar traits. From these observations, scientists can form
hypotheses about how beliefs/morés/customs – once they enter into the culture
of a tribe – connect to outcomes further along in time for that tribe. In ex
post facto studies, again, the scientists do not intervene in the flows of life
of that tribe, no matter how well or badly they seem to be trending. The scientists
only watch to see whether the outcomes that they predicted for the tribe do, in
fact, occur. Then, they can use the findings of their research to advise governments
on policy.
In
ex post facto studies, social scientists ask questions like: Does
losing a war spur economic growth in a defeated nation? Do levels of
interracial strife rise during economic depressions? Can a country learn a market-based
system of commerce in a generation or less? Does a tribe’s losing its traditional
source of livelihood, and thus many of its traditional values and customs, cause
the tribe’s incidence of substance abuse and family violence to go up? Etc.
Then,
the scientists can draw tentative conclusions about how all societies move and
evolve over time. These kinds of conclusions are tentative, because the
experimental conditions and the ethics of science do not allow the scientists
to isolate the test population or the control. The kind of rigor that
bacteriologists, for example, can get in studying a drug can’t be matched by anthropologists.
We can’t rigorously control the lives of real people, first because it’s wrong,
in our view, to do so, and second, because, almost always, they won’t stand for
it. Such action, even roughly perceived, causes people to revolt.
But
the fascinating thing for social scientists is that conclusions drawn from ex
post facto studies can still be tested in the real world. For example, many
of the countries of Eastern Europe got free market economies within a few years
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And in many of them, levels of
prosperity soared in less than twenty years.
Modern
history has even provided more dramatic examples of the greater efficiency of free
market economies compared to centrally planned ones. In one generation, South
Korea, using the free market approach to commerce, left totalitarian North
Korea far behind. Germany today is no longer divided into West and East, but
for many years, it was. West Germany soared while the East, under Soviet
control, withered. Ethnically, historically, the same people. One group under
the free market system, the other under the centrally planned one. In the realm
of ex post facto study, proof of the superior efficiency of the free
market system could not have been more dramatically demonstrated: Communism
lost.
Similar
studies to that done of East and West Germany and North and South Korea are
being done, especially by historians, all the time. More and more, they keep
demonstrating the value of freedom over the long haul.
In
the meantime, what progress are we making toward articulating a universal moral
code? The signs are mixed. Arguably, the field with the scientists who are most
intent on finding nomothetic laws that apply to human history is the wing of Anthropology
called “Cultural Materialism". A rigorous scientific gaze has been turned onto culture
only recently by these few people. What might we achieve if we began to fully
fund truly scientific study of ourselves?
abandoned factory in East Berlin
(credit: Babewyn, via Wikimedia Commons)